Wednesday, January 24, 2007

How Paranoid Is This?

How paranoid is this scenario?

First, add 20K troops to Iraq. It'll take a while to get any results, so this automatically extends the status quo by several months. During this interlude, provoke Iran, or trigger/claim provocations on the part of Iran.

Next, expand the Iraq war into Iran (and Syria?). This ensures that the neocons get to attack Iran, which they've always wanted to do. Perhaps more importantly, from the President's perspective, this ensures no withdrawal from Iraq during the current term (since the expanded war will last into the next administration). Withdrawing from Iraq is unacceptable because it is an acknowledgement of failure in Iraq. Establishing a legacy of success is a prime motivator. If the Iraq War can be pushed into the next administration, and the next administration withdraws (and Iraq fails), then it will be the next administration's fault.

Having Israel launch an early assault against Iran would be another easy way to expand the war (with essentially the same results), without the need for manufactured provocations vs. the US.

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