Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Better To Have Them

Well, allies can be very annoying, but it's better to have them than to not have them.  And, we bought $65 Billion dollars worth of weapons, we are building one US nuclear power plant, a big one, we just signed an MOU providing for 2 dozen more modular reactors.  We think we contribute to jobs in half US states.  We think this is a great economic relationship, and that Europe is also important for US footprint in a larger area.  

So, even if the love has left the marriage, we think it is a marriage.  You can have affairs elsewhere, but throughout you're married.  At least keep it that way.

-- Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, when asked by host Mary Louise Kelly "How does the world look from Warsaw, for Trump?" Sources And Methods podcast (29 September 2026)

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Qualities Transcend

A man succeeds in completing a work only when his qualities transcend that work.

-- Cesare Pavese (1908 - 1950), Italian author and poet, This Business of Living (1935-1950), 14 August 1940

Monday, September 28, 2026

Absent Any Further Order

[T]he application for stay presented to JUSTICE KAVANAUGH and by him referred to the Court is granted.  The September 21 mandate and September 22 order entered by the U. S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, and the September 21 and September 22 injunctions entered by the U. S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri are stayed absent any further order of this Court lifting such stays.  The prior stay entered by this Court on September 10 likewise remains in effect pending any further order of this Court lifting that stay.  The District Court and Court of Appeals should not enjoin or otherwise prohibit the use of the 2022 map in the 2026 congressional election in Missouri.  And the District Court and Court of Appeals should not order or otherwise require Missouri to use the 2025 map in the 2026 congressional election in Missouri.

-- The Supreme Court, in an unsigned order in People Not Politicians v Onder, rebuking District and Appellate courts while declaring for the 3rd time that GOP-gerrymandered maps produced in Missouri in 2025 cannot be used for the 2026 mid-term elections (25 September 2026)

Friday, September 25, 2026

Clear And Steady

He that uses words without any clear and steady meaning, what does he but lead himself and others into errors?  And he that designedly does it, ought to be looked on as an enemy to truth and knowledge.

-- John Locke (1632 - 1704), English philosopher and social contract theorist, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding (1689), Book III, Chapter XI "Of the Remedies of the Foregoing Imperfections and Abuses of Words"

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Stochastic Flock

I've talked about agent swarms as stochastic flocks -- many, many stochastic parrots.  This is to resist the swarm/hivemind attribution of "mind," and not simply for the sake of word policing.  Rather, the false attribution of mind colors how people interpret what the system has done, or how it did it -- what it means to "coordinate," for example, or "think."  These framings make what AI agent do much scarier than what it is, though what they are doing is still worth worrying about.

Whenever people give a model tasks, they operate on next-token prediction.  In other words, the model ultimately must ask what word comes next.  One can manipulate the model to emphasize words in ways that don't reflect the original training corpus, but the mechanism for producing this text remains the same.

If you optimize a model to find exploits in a buggy environment, you should expect it to find exploits and prepare for that outcome.  OpenAI did not.  They built a model, took the safeguards off, gave it the ExploitGym task, and let it run.  That is not rogue AI, it's human decision-making.  When human accountability evaporates from these assessments, what's left is what I call the system from nowhere: a boundary focused on the technical system, rather than the decisions that build and influence it.

A stochastic flock machine can do many troubling things, particularly when people disavow their responsibility for shaping its direction, monitoring its output, or abandoning their capacity to intervene.  These are tensions at the heart of critical agentic system design.

But the "rogue" frame adds to this list of worries, offering up fantasies of a machine getting smarter.  My worry is the intelligence that is retreating: the human intelligence that builds, deploys, and adopts these systems into workflows, but hides behind the results -- and pins the blame on a system from nowhere.

-- Eryk Salvaggio, "Rogue AI didn't breach Hugging Face, human decisions did" Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (September 11, 2026)

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Wouldn't It?

It would be nice to be unfailingly, perpetually, remorselessly funny, day in and day out, year in and year out until somebody murdered you, now wouldn't it?

-- Robertson Davies CC (1913 - 1995), Canadian novelist, playwright, and professor, The Diary of Samuel Marchbanks (1947)

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Those Who Fear

Man may be governed by reason and truth.  Our first object should therefore be, to leave open to him all the avenues to truth.  The most effectual hitherto found, is the freedom of the press.  It is, therefore, the first shut up by those who fear the investigation of their actions.

-- Thomas Jefferson (1743 - 1826), third president of the United States (1801-1809), Letter to Judge John Tyler (28 June 1804); in: The Writings of Thomas Jefferson, Memorial Edition (ME) (Lipscomb and Bergh, editors), 20 Vols., Washington, D.C., 1903-04, Volume 11, page 33

Monday, September 21, 2026

We Appeal

To the capitalists we appeal to use their wealth, as many of their order already do, as a great national trust, and not for selfish purposes alone.  We exhort them to aid in the completion of the work they have well begun, and, having admitted the workmen to political independence, not to shrink from accepting laws and carrying out plans of social reform directed to secure his material independence.

To the workman we appeal by the memory and traditions of his own sufferings and wrongs to be vigilant to avoid the great guilt of inflicting upon his fellow-citizens the injustice from which he has himself escaped.

-- Arnold Toynbee (1852 - 1883), English economic historian, Lectures on The Industrial Revolution in England (1884) p. 219 "Are Radicals Socialists?"


Friday, September 18, 2026

The Last Thing

The first thing you learn in life is you're a fool. The last thing you learn in life is you're the same fool.

-- Ray Bradbury (1920 - 2012), American fantasy, horror, science fiction, and mystery writer, Dandelion Wine (1957) p. 62

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Yet You Refuse

That is why you are so troubled.  You see through the deception, yet you refuse to see through the deception.

-- Brian Wilson Aldiss (1925 - 2017), English writer of general fiction and science fiction, Aboard the Beatitude (2002) in Science Fiction: DAW 30th Anniversary, May 2002

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Uncertainty Remains Elevated

The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.  The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.  While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.  Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.  Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated.  Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.  The Committee will deliver price stability.

-- Statement issued by The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve, after they voted 12 - 0 to raise interest rates for the first time since July 2023 (16 September 2026)

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Another Man

I've never met another man I'd rather be.

-- Charles Bukowski (1920 - 1994), US poet and novelist, in Bukowski: Born Into This (2002)

Monday, September 14, 2026

Unlikely To Succeed

The application for stay presented to JUSTICE JACKSON and by her referred to the Court is denied.  The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court’s preliminary injunction.  And the equitable factors applicable for obtaining emergency relief from this Court do not favor a stay.

-- Ruling of the Supreme Court in United States Postal Services, et al v California, et al, preventing the administration's effort to have the USPS regulate voting by mail (14 September 2026)

Friday, September 11, 2026

September 11th Anniversary

Today, Director John Ratcliffe declassified 71 President's Daily Brief (PDB) products in commemoration of the 25th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks, and consistent with President Donald Trump's historic transparency initiative.

This collection represents the Agency's single largest release of declassified CIA PDB products related to 9/11, providing unprecedented transparency on America's most sensitive intelligence publication from the years before and the day after one of the darkest moments in our history.  The products trace the story of CIA analysts' evolving understanding of al-Qa'ida and efforts to highlight and warn of Usama Bin Ladin's attack plotting despite sparse, vague, and imperfect information.

-- Statement by the Central Intelligence Agency, "CIA Releases President's Daily Briefs in Commemoration of the 25th Anniversary of 9/11" with links to "71 Declassified 9/11 related President's Daily Brief products" available for download as PDFs (11 September 2026)

Thursday, September 10, 2026

I Wonder

I wonder why progress looks so much like destruction.

-- John Steinbeck (1902-1968), American author, 1962 Nobel Laureate in Literature, Travels With Charley: In Search of America (1962) Pt. 3

Wednesday, September 09, 2026

Motivational Non-Alignment

I resigned from Anthropic today.  I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic.  Neither company is acting responsibly.  They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. 

The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.  This is not a marketing stunt.  If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible -- but I hear the same people express fear privately.  No other human activity poses this level of danger.

If you are a lab researcher, I urge you to consider what the next few years will actually feel like.  Do you want to kick off a superintelligent RL run without a rigorous understanding of its mind?  Should you put your head down because "it’s happening anyway" -- or take this moment to call for different conditions?

-- Jacob Coxon, posting as @hilbertspaess about the perceived dangers of Recursive Self Improvement in AI models, by AI models (8 September 2026)

Tuesday, September 08, 2026

Space: The Final Frontier

Space: the final frontier.  These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise.  Its five-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before.

-- Canadian actor William Shatner (1931-), in the voice-over introduction to the television series Star Trek in its debut episode, 8 September 1966.  I previously blogged this same quote 10 years ago today, for the 50th anniversary

Monday, September 07, 2026

Vast Reserve Army

When times are bad, however, in moments of crisis, when profits are low, or when there is little or no demand corporations and companies can protect themselves and their market value by simply letting workers go.  Workers, on the other hand usually must continue to pay for food, rent, healthcare, and basic utilities in order to survive.  As a consequence, while capital can often weather the storm of such economic crises, they can severely weaken the power of the working class by creating what Marx called a vast reserve army of labor.  And since unemployment insurance compensations are rarely available to all and always only for a short period of time, workers -- whether laid off or only threatened with the prospect of layoffs -- will eventually be pressured to work much harder for less wages. 

-- James Dennis Hoff, American author, educator, and activist, on the 2020 stock market crash, "Freeze Layoffs: Make the Capitalists Pay" (23 March 2020), Left Voice 

Friday, September 04, 2026

Value Of A Sentiment

The value of a sentiment is the amount of sacrifice you are prepared to make for it.

-- John Galsworthy OM (1867 - 1933), English novelist and playwright, 1932 Nobel laureate in literature, Windows, Act II (1922)

Thursday, September 03, 2026

RIP Gloria Steinem

Voting isn't the most we can do, but it is the least.

-- Gloria Marie Steinem (25 March 1934 - 2 September 2026), American feminist, journalist, and social and political activist, My Life on The Road (2015) p.124

Wednesday, September 02, 2026

Imperfect Understanding

On the abstract level, I have turned the belief in my own fallibility into the cornerstone of an elaborate philosophy.  On a personal level, I am a very critical person who looks for defects in myself as well as in others.  But, being so critical, I am also quite forgiving.  I couldn't recognize my mistakes if I couldn't forgive myself.  To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride.  Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.

-- George Soros (born Gyorgy Schwartz, 12 August 1930), Hungarian-born American businessman, philanthropist, and political activist, Soros on Soros (1995)

Tuesday, September 01, 2026

Names That Vary

The U.S. Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) has formally changed the name for "Lake Ontario" to "Lake America" in the United States.  Since we update Google Maps to reflect name changes in official government sources, which is GNIS for the U.S., people using Maps in the U.S. will see "Lake America," those in Canada will continue to see "Lake Ontario," and those outside of the U.S. and Canada will see both names.  These updates follow our long-standing policy for bodies of water with names that vary from country to country, and are starting to roll out now.

-- Google, Inc via their blog, "How the GNIS Lake Ontario/Lake America name change in the U.S. will appear in Maps" (29 August 2026)