The dynamic nature of the armed conflict will introduce a level of uncertainty not seen since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. As the war progresses, actors with a vested interest in the conflict will operate under increasingly urgent requirements to fill critical intelligence gaps and achieve specific tactical objectives. How cyber operators choose to meet these requirements may pose significant risk to the global cybersecurity landscape.
We assess that such an environment of urgency may incentivize the use of sensitive capabilities that will allow threat actors to gain assured access to networks or manipulate aspects of information systems to achieve strategic objectives. Highly reserved capabilities such as zero-days, critical infrastructure attacks, supply-chain attacks, and other novel techniques will almost-certainly be showcased in the medium-term.
-- Tom Burt, Corporate Vice President, Customer Security & Trust at Microsoft, The hybrid war in Ukraine, 27 April, 2022
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