Man Knows Much More

Man knows much more than he understands.

-- Alfred Adler (1870 - 1937), Austrian medical doctor and psychologist, quoted in Harold H. Mosak and Michael P. Maniacci, A Primer of Adlerian Psychology: The Analytic-Behavioural-Cognitive Psychology of Alfred Adler (1999)

Not Quite By Chance

Nothing happens quite by chance.  It's a question of accretion of information and experience.

-- Jonas Salk (1914 - 1995), medical researcher and author, inventor of the Salk vaccine against Polio, and founder of the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, as quoted in Breakthrough : The Saga of Jonas Salk (1966) by Richard Carter

Knee High By The 4th Of July

When I was a kid I remember hearing the phrase, "Knee high by the Fourth of July".  The idea was that your corn crop was doing pretty well if it was as tall as your knees at that point in the growing season.  In my experience, the corn is quite a bit taller than that these days.  This year I managed to get a picture on Saturday July 4th to illustrate the point.

Brought to you by the miracles of modern agriculture.

Buzzword Sandwich

[This decision] aligns with N.S.F.'s wider strategy to have a nimbler approach to prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies as well as a deliberate approach to smart life cycle management within its portfolio of research infrastructure.

-- Michael England, spokesman for the National Science Foundation, justifying the decision to dismantle the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a $368 million network of more than 900 deep-sea instruments collecting data in both the Atlantic and Pacific that has been critical to climate and ocean research, NY Times (1 June 2026)

Pulling Us Back

From the cabin of Integrity here, as we surpass the furthest distance humans have ever traveled from planet Earth, we do so in honoring the extraordinary efforts and feats of our predecessors in human space exploration.  We will continue our journey even further into space before Mother Earth succeeds in pulling us back to everything that we hold dear.  But we most importantly choose this moment to challenge this generation and the next to make sure this record is not long-lived.

-- CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft during the Artemis II test flight around the Moon, traveling 248,655 miles from Earth, surpassing the record for human spaceflight's farthest distance previously set by the Apollo 13 mission in 1970 (6 April 2026)

Artemis II

NASA's Artemis II is the first crewed mission of the Artemis program and will carry NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, as well as CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen on an approximately 10-day mission around the Moon and back to Earth. 

The first crewed deep-space flight in over 50 years, Artemis II is expected to send the crew farther from Earth than any previous human mission, potentially breaking the record of about 248,655 miles (400,171 km) from Earth set by Apollo 13 during its lunar free-return trajectory.  This milestone will occur during the lunar flyby phase, when the crew travels on a free-return trajectory around the Moon, which allows the spacecraft to loop around the Moon and return to Earth without entering lunar orbit. 

During the test flight, NASA will test life-support systems and critical operations in deep space, paving the way for future lunar landings and Mars exploration. 

-- Jason Costa at Nasa.gov, "LIVE: Artemis II Launch Day Updates" (1 April 2026)

Goodhart's Law

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

-- Goodhart's law, named for Charles Albert Eric Goodhart, CBE, FBA (born 23 October 1936), British economist, originally (1975) expressed as "Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes."

In Conflict

The doctrine that the world is made up of objects whose existence is independent of human consciousness turns out to be in conflict with quantum mechanics and with facts established by experiment.

-- Bernard d'Espagnat (1921 - 2015), French theoretical physicist, philosopher of science, and author, best known for his work on the nature of reality, The Quantum Theory and Reality (November 1979) Scientific American p. 158

Inexhaustible Source

A mind which has once imbibed a taste for scientific inquiry, and has learnt the habit of applying its principles readily to the cases which occur, has within itself an inexhaustible source of pure and exciting contemplations.

-- Sir John Frederick William Herschel, 1st Baronet (1792 - 1871), English polymath active as a mathematician, astronomer, chemist, inventor, and experimental photographer, A Preliminary Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy (1831)

Move Against Vaccines

US regulators will not review Moderna's request to license a new, potentially more effective flu shot -- even though the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) previously gave the green light to the project -- in a decision that could have implications for all new and updated vaccines in the US.

It's the latest move by the Trump administration against vaccines.  Officials in January decided to stop fully recommending one-third of routine childhood vaccines, including flu vaccines.

"This is likely to discourage industry from investing in future influenza vaccines, and makes working with the US FDA uncertain and problematic," said Dorit Reiss, professor of law at UC Law San Francisco.  "They are refusing to review a new vaccine with a more flexible technology, while creating a real risk we will not have traditional vaccines for next year."

-- Melody Schreiber, "FDA declines to review Moderna application for new flu vaccine" in The Guardian (10 February 2026)

Most Predictable Thing

It's weird how I am constantly surprised by the passage of time when it's literally the most predictable thing in the Universe.

-- Randall Munroe (1984 -), American cartoonist, author, and engineer, in xkcd 1477

Doubt All

Believe those who seek the truth, doubt those who find it; doubt all, but do not doubt yourself.

-- André Gide (1869 - 1951), French author, 1947 Nobel laureate in literature, Gallimard, ed. (1952), Ainsi soit-il; ou, Les Jeux sont faits ("So be it; or, The die is cast"), p. 174

Brexit Impact Update

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016.  Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey.  These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time.  We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%.  

These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.  Comparing these with contemporary forecasts -- providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions -- shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

-- Nicholas Bloom, et al, "The Economic Impact of Brexit", National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2025

One Never Notices

One never notices what has been done; one can only see what remains to be done.

-- Marie Curie (1867 - 1934), Polish-born scientist, first woman to win the Nobel Prize (for Physics in 1903); first person to win a second Nobel Prize (for Chemistry, 1911), Letter to her brother (1894)

Verification

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification.

-- Thomas Huxley (1825 - 1895), British biologist, On the advisableness of improving natural knowledge (1866)

Compact For Academic Excellence

[T]he Institute's mission of service to the nation directs us to advance knowledge, educate students and bring knowledge to bear on the world's great challenges. We do that in line with a clear set of values, with excellence above all. 

These values and other MIT practices meet or exceed many standards outlined in the document you sent.  We freely choose these values because they're right, and we live by them because they support our mission -- work of immense value to the prosperity, competitiveness, health and security of the United States.  And of course, MIT abides by the law.

The document also includes principles with which we disagree, including those that would restrict freedom of expression and our independence as an institution.  And fundamentally, the premise of the document is inconsistent with our core belief that scientific funding should be based on scientific merit alone.

In our view, America's leadership in science and innovation depends on independent thinking and open competition for excellence.  In that free marketplace of ideas, the people of MIT gladly compete with the very best, without preferences. Therefore , with respect, we cannot support the proposed approach to addressing the issues facing higher education.

-- MIT President Sally Kornbluth, replying to the Education Department's proposed "Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education" (10 October 2025)

Try To Learn

Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

-- Thomas Huxley (1825 - 1895), British biologist, A favorite comment, inscribed on his memorial at Ealing, quoted in Nature Vol. XLVI (30 October 1902), p. 658

Highly Unsettling

Suggestions that acetaminophen use in pregnancy causes autism are not only highly concerning to clinicians but also irresponsible when considering the harmful and confusing message they send to pregnant patients, including those who may need to rely on this beneficial medicine during pregnancy.

Today's announcement by HHS is not backed by the full body of scientific evidence and dangerously simplifies the many and complex causes of neurologic challenges in children.  It is highly unsettling that our federal health agencies are willing to make an announcement that will affect the health and well-being of millions of people without the backing of reliable data.

The conditions people use acetaminophen to treat during pregnancy are far more dangerous than any theoretical risks and can create severe morbidity and mortality for the pregnant person and the fetus.

-- Steven J. Fleischman, MD, MBA, FACOG, president of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), "ACOG Affirms Safety and Benefits of Acetaminophen during Pregnancy" (22 September 2025)

FEMA Katrina Declaration

TO: Members of Federal Emergency Management Agency Review Council

Twenty years ago, Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane, claiming an estimated 1,833 lives, leaving millions homeless, and causing approximately $161 billion in damage.  Hurricane Katrina was not just a natural disaster, but a man-made one: the inexperience of senior leaders and the profound failure by the federal government to deliver timely, unified, and effective aid to those in need left survivors to fend for themselves for days, and highlighted how Black, Indigenous, and low-income communities are disproportionally affected by disasters.  These failures prompted Congress to pass the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 (PKEMRA), which introduced safeguards to ensure such shortcomings of disaster preparation and response would not be repeated.  However, two decades later, FEMA is enacting processes and leadership structures that echo the conditions PKEMRA was designed to prevent.

1) We oppose the reduction in capability of FEMA to perform its missions. 

2) We oppose the ongoing failure to appoint a qualified FEMA administrator, as required by law. 

3) We oppose the elimination of life- and cost-saving risk reduction programs.  

4) We oppose interference with preparedness programs that build capacity for our SLTT partners. 

5) We oppose the censorship of climate science, environmental protection, and efforts to ensure all communities have access to information, resources, and support.

6) We oppose the reduction of FEMA’s disaster workforce.

The signatories of this letter are FEMA employees from across the United States who are dedicated to helping people before, during, and after disasters, and who are members of the communities we seek to support.  In addition to named signatories, we include anonymous signatories who share our concerns but choose not to identify themselves due to the culture of fear and suppression cultivated by this administration.

-- "The FEMA Katrina Declaration" (25 August 2025), four days before the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina

All Others

"In God we trust.  All others must use data."

-- Mary Walton, The Deming Management Method (1986) Chapter 20 "Doing It with Data" p. 96