Efficacy

A report showing the efficacy of the covid-19 vaccine that was previously delayed by the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been blocked from being published in the agency's flagship scientific journal, according to three people familiar with the decision who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.  The report showed that the vaccine reduced emergency department visits and hospitalizations among healthy adults by about half this past winter.

The report, which had cleared the agency's scientific-review process, had been delayed.  It now won't be published at all, people familiar with the decision told The Post.

-- Lena H. Sun, writing for the Washington Post, "CDC won't publish report showing covid shots cut likelihood of hospital visits" (22 April 2026)

Scion FR-S 10 Year Anniversary

10 years ago today (16 March 2016) I bought a new, 2015 Scion FR-S from the dealership in Urbana.  Today that car has 249,320 miles on it.  It continues to serve me well as a daily driver.

Early on I used it for autocross and commuting to work at the University of Illinois.  Commuting put 30,000 miles a year on it up until the pandemic.  Annual mileage is around half that now.

In all that time it's been pretty well behaved, needing only regular maintenance plus a new clutch at around 180,000 miles.

My previous car, a 1998 Saturn SC2, made it to 421,000 miles before giving up the ghost.  I don't expect to get that far in the Scion, but here's hoping.

Move Against Vaccines

US regulators will not review Moderna's request to license a new, potentially more effective flu shot -- even though the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) previously gave the green light to the project -- in a decision that could have implications for all new and updated vaccines in the US.

It's the latest move by the Trump administration against vaccines.  Officials in January decided to stop fully recommending one-third of routine childhood vaccines, including flu vaccines.

"This is likely to discourage industry from investing in future influenza vaccines, and makes working with the US FDA uncertain and problematic," said Dorit Reiss, professor of law at UC Law San Francisco.  "They are refusing to review a new vaccine with a more flexible technology, while creating a real risk we will not have traditional vaccines for next year."

-- Melody Schreiber, "FDA declines to review Moderna application for new flu vaccine" in The Guardian (10 February 2026)

Covid Anniversary

It was on March 11, 2020, when I first described COVID-19 as a "pandemic".  While many media highlight that date as the pandemic's anniversary, the much more significant moment was six weeks earlier, on January 30, 2020, when I declared a public health emergency of international concern -- the highest level of alarm under international health law.  At the time, there were fewer than 100 reported cases outside China, and no reported deaths.

COVID showed the world where our individual and collective weaknesses lay, as organizations and countries alike.  But it also sparked great collaboration, investment and innovation.

We have the knowledge, tools, and experience to prevent the next pandemic.  What we need now is determination, cooperation, and the will to act before disaster strikes again.

History will judge us, not on whether we saw the next pandemic coming, but on how well we were prepared.  We know we cannot sustain a repeat of the losses inflicted by a crisis like COVID.  So I am confident my answer will turn to an unequivocal "yes" when we are asked in the future if we are primed for preventing or containing the next pandemic.  We have no other alternative -- our collective global security demands it.

-- Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization, "After COVID-19, is the world ready for the next pandemic?", on the 5th anniversary of the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic (11 March 2025)

Farewell Address

Before I begin, let me speak to important news from earlier today.  After eight months of nonstop negotiation by my administration, a ceasefire and a hostage deal has been reached by Israel and Hamas, the elements of which I laid out in great detail in May of this year.  This plan was developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration. That's why I told my team to keep the incoming administration fully informed, because that's how it should be: working together as Americans.

This will be my final address to you -- the American people -- from the Oval Office, from this desk as president.  And I've been thinking a lot about who we are and, maybe more importantly, who we should be. ...

Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power, and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead.  We see the consequences all across America.  And we've seen it before, more than a century ago.  But the American people stood up to the robber barons back then and busted the trusts.

People should be able to make as much as they can, but play by the same rules, pay their fair share in taxes.  You know, we've proven we don't have to choose between protecting the environment and growing the economy.  We're doing both.  But powerful forces want to wield their unchecked influence to eliminate the steps we've taken to tackle the climate crisis to serve their own interest for power and profit.  We must not be bullied into sacrificing the future, the future of our children and our grandchildren.  We must keep pushing forward and push faster.  There is no time to waste.

Americans are being buried under an avalanche of misinformation and disinformation enabling the abuse of power.  The free press is crumbling.  Editors are disappearing.  Social media is giving up on fact-checking.  The truth is smothered by lies told for power and for profit.

We must reform the tax code -- not by giving the biggest tax cuts to billionaires, but by making them begin to pay their fair share.  We need to get dark money -- that's that hidden funding behind too many campaigns' contributions -- we need to get it out of our politics.

A fair shot is what makes America, America.  Everyone is entitled to a fair shot -- not a guarantee, but just a fair shot, an even playing field -- going as far as your hard work and talent can take you.  We can never lose that essential truth -- remain who we are.  Now it's your turn to stand guard.  May you all be the keeper of the flame.  May you keep the faith.

I love America.  You love it too.  God bless you all.  And may God protect our troops.  Thank you for this great honor.

-- Excerpts from President Biden's Farewell Address to the Nation (15 January 2025)

Quietly Available

We used to think that secrecy was perhaps the greatest enemy of democracy, and as long as there was no suppression or censorship, people could be trusted to make the informed decisions that would preserve our free society, but we have learned in recent years that the techniques of misinformation and misdirection have become so refined that, even in an open society, a cleverly directed flood of misinformation can overwhelm the truth, even though the truth is out there, uncensored, quietly available to anyone who can find it.

-- Daniel Clement Dennett III (1942 - 2024), American atheist philosopher, writer, and cognitive scientist, Breaking the Spell: Religion As A Natural Phenomenon (2006)

Quiet Life

The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind.

-- Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955), German-born theoretical physicist, Out of My Later Years : The Scientist, Philosopher, and Man Portrayed Through His Own Words (1950) Chapter 16

The Next 5000

Today while taking attendance after teaching Taekwondo I noted that on March 28th I reached 5000 total student-hours of teaching (5 kids in a class counts as 5 student hours).  That took a little under 9 years to accumulate, with a 6-month gap in there while I recuperated from ACL reconstruction surgery.

I'm already looking forward to the next 5000.

Warm Weather

'Tis very warm weather when one's in bed.

-- Jonathan Swift (1667 - 1745), Anglo-Irish writer and satirist, Journal to Stella (8 November 1710)

You Will Be Assimilated

After 1,358 days since the WHO declared a global covid pandemic, I tested positive for covid on Saturday.  My Garmin watch agrees that today has been better than all of last week.  I'm bummed, but I've experienced worse.  Still, not recommended.

Visiting Family

This long holiday weekend I had the pleasure of visiting my #3 daughter, Heather, and her family in Louisiana.  They're in a new house which I saw for the first time, and we visited a number of touristy things, including the Audubon Aquarium and Insectarium where my two granddaughters especially like the Butterfly Garden.  

For what it's worth, this concludes three consecutive weekends of travel by car, 2 weekends ago to Indiana, last weekend to Nebraska, and this weekend to Louisiana.  It's been fun, but I'm looking forward to not driving out of state for a while.

You Can Lead

I cannot determine what will define my time in this place.  But I do hope I have demonstrated something else entirely.  That you can be anxious, sensitive, kind and wear your heart on your sleeve.  You can be a mother, or not, an ex-Mormon, or not, a nerd, a crier, a hugger -- you can be all of these things, and not only can you be here -- you can lead.

Just like me.

-- Outgoing New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaking to parliament in her final address, 5 April 2023

Not Policymakers

But the current border crisis is not a COVID crisis.  And courts should not be in the business of perpetuating administrative edicts designed for one emergency only because elected officials have failed to address a different emergency.  We are a court of law, not policymakers of last resort.

-- Supreme Court Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch, dissenting in Arizona et al v Secretary of Homeland Security, in which the majority left in place Title 42 restrictions on immigrants seeking asylum, pending further hearings, 27 December 2022

Bookends

Back in 2001, I was in my 8th year of working for NovaNET, the descendant of CERL PLATO.  Each year the company hosted a national gathering of its customers and employees in Phoenix.  As a long-time Cardinals baseball fan, I noted that the Cardinals would play the Arizona Diamondbacks, in Phoenix, during the conference.  I bought a ticket for the Diamondbacks home opener, Friday April 6th 2001.  

At the game that night, the Cardinals fielded a much-heralded rookie right fielder (later first baseman) by the name of Albert Pujols, who, at 21 years old, was playing in what I think was just his third MLB game.  In the 4th inning, facing Armando Reynoso on a count of 1 ball and 2 strikes, Albert Pujols hit his first career home run, a 2-run shot that tied the game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUvUUQfYdRo

Fast forward to this weekend, and my daughter (who was 2 when that first home run was hit) treated me to a Labor Day Sunday game at Busch Stadium, as the Cardinals faced their arch-rival Cubs.  The game started more than an hour late due to rain, and it drizzled off and on, but it was well worth it.  Albert Pujols didn't start the game, but in the bottom of the 8th inning of a scoreless game, he emerged from the dugout to hit a pinch-hit, 2-run home run, and the Cardinals went on to win 2-0.  It was Pujols' 695th career home run as he aims for 700 before retiring at the end of this season.  There's a lifetime between those 2 home runs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqcLl9QSJgU

This post made possible by my daughter.  Thanks, kid!

Tally Redux

This is a tally, 25,000 at a time, of cumulative US deaths from covid.  Some of these 25Ks are much too close together.  And it's worrisome that the most recent single-digit span of days with 25K deaths was just 60 days ago.  

And, of course, it's at least a little concerning that more than one million Americans have already died of covid.

 30,051   4/14/20 (~90)       526,588   3/03/21  (13)

 50,269   4/23/20  ( 9)       550,394   3/21/21  (18)
 76,496   5/07/20  (14)       575,098   4/18/21  (28)
100,145   5/26/20  (19)       600,004   5/20/21  (32)
126,216   6/25/20  (30)       625,106   7/28/21  (69)
150,230   7/27/20  (32)       650,786   8/28/21  (31)
175,726   8/19/20  (23)       675,652   9/13/21  (16)
200,883   9/17/20  (29)       701,312   9/24/21  (11)
226,178  10/21/20  (34)       727,357  10/08/21  (14)
250,393  11/15/20  (25)       750,369  10/22/21  (14)
275,027  12/01/20  (16)       775,853  11/12/21  (21)
300,188  12/11/20  (10)       801,168  12/03/21  (21)
325,550  12/21/20  (10)       827,664  12/23/21  (20)
350,837  12/31/20  (10)       850,647   1/10/22  (18)
377,718   1/09/21  ( 9)       877,846   1/21/22  (11)
402,005   1/15/21  ( 6)       902,465   2/01/22  (11)
425,783   1/24/21  ( 9)       927,504   2/10/22  ( 9)
450,271   2/01/21  ( 8)       950,407   2/22/22  (12)
475,424   2/09/21  ( 8)       976,406   3/09/22  (15)
500,586   2/18/21  ( 9)     1,000,145   4/08/22  (30)

The Sheer Scale

The United States reported more deaths from COVID-19 last Friday than deaths from Hurricane Katrina, more on any two recent weekdays than deaths during the 9/11 terrorist attacks, more last month than deaths from flu in a bad season, and more in two years than deaths from HIV during the four decades of the AIDS epidemic.  At least 953,000 Americans have died from COVID, and the true toll is likely even higher because many deaths went uncounted.  COVID is now the third leading cause of death in the U.S., after only heart disease and cancer, which are both catchall terms for many distinct diseases.  The sheer scale of the tragedy strains the moral imagination.  On May 24, 2020, as the United States passed 100,000 recorded deaths, The New York Times filled its front page with the names of the dead, describing their loss as "incalculable." Now the nation hurtles toward a milestone of 1 million.  What is 10 times incalculable?

-- Ed Yong, "How Did This Many Deaths Become Normal?", The Atlantic, 8 March 2022

My Fellow Americans

Madam Speaker, Madam Vice President, our First Lady and Second Gentleman.  Members of Congress and the Cabinet.  Justices of the Supreme Court.  My fellow Americans.  

Last year COVID-19 kept us apart.  This year we are finally together again. 

Tonight, we meet as Democrats Republicans and Independents.  But most importantly as Americans. 

With a duty to one another, to the American people, to the Constitution. 

And with an unwavering resolve that freedom will always triumph over tyranny. 

-- Opening remarks of President Joe Biden's State of the Union Address, 1 March 2022

Pandemic Endemic

Just a note to mark the apparent administrative transition of covid from pandemic to endemic.  To date, CDC criteria have been based around case numbers, and our goal has been to prevent cases (and deaths).

Now, CDC criteria are based around available hospital capacity, and our goal is to prevent hospitals from becoming overcrowded.  

In some places, covid is a challenge to hospital capacity right now.  In the future it will be again, at different times and places around the world.  Sounds endemic.

(Here's hoping the variant faeries don't produce anything particularly miserable.)

Political Controversy

The thing that strikes me more and more -- and it strikes a lot of other people, too -- is the extraordinary viciousness and dishonesty of political controversy in our time.  I don't mean merely that controversies are acrimonious.  They ought to be that when they are on serious subjects.  I mean that almost nobody seems to feel that an opponent deserves a fair hearing or that the objective truth matters as long as you can score a neat debating point.

-- George Orwell (1903 - 1950), pen name of British novelist, essayist, and journalist Eric Arthur Blair, whose work is characterized by lucid prose, and awareness of social injustice, "As I Please," Tribune (8 December 1944)

New Year? Yes please!

An optimist stays up until midnight to see the New Year in.  A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.

-- Bill Vaughan (8 October 1915 - 25 February 1977), American columnist and author

[I posted this 13 years ago, but I like it, and it definitely applies this year.]